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Progression

The Calibration Ledger

Every dated forecast in the book, and whether it held

The book tags every forecast near-term likely, plausible, or wild, and each tier carries a stated horizon. That makes the whole thing checkable. This page lists every tagged claim with the year its window closes, soonest first, and lets you record what actually happened.

Your verdicts are stored in this browser only. Nothing is sent anywhere, and nobody sees your score but you. The front matter promises the book aims “to be less wrong over time, not right in advance” — this is where that gets tested.